Tropical Models are Great, But…

As we are watching the evolution of 99L in the Atlantic we should remind ourselves of a few things:

1 – There are many, many models for different purposes. Some are better than others and each one has strengths and weaknesses. We often hear of the Euro or the GFS when it comes to tropical systems because there are very good, but far from perfect, tools. So not get caught up with a model or an individual run.

2 – At this time, 10pm Tuesdat night, we have a tropical wave that does not have a center. It does have a broad rotation that could, and will probably consolidate. Until there is a center of circulation the models do not have a great handle on the system.  In looking at the latest infra-red and the last visible satellite images this evening I would say there is a chance if a center forms it could either form in the northern or southern lobe of the system.  If the center evolves from the southern lobe the current model solutions would not be valid.

3 – Do not only focus on the center or forecast paths.  Heavy rains are usually many, many miles from the center regardless of the strength of the storm.  

4 – BE PREPARED! This is hurricane season. Have your supplies ready, do not wait for watches and/or warnings to be issued.  Whether we get a full blown hurricane or some showers from this system, there will be another.  Maybe not this year, maybe this year.  It is much easier to gradually get ready than to rush out and try to find what you need for you, your family, and your pets. Here is a great link to help prepare.

With that said, stay informed. I try to get relevant information about the north Broward area out in timely manner.  As we go trough this week check the NHC and NWS Miami’s sites for current information about our weather.

Here is the latest outlook from the NHC for 99L:


Author: Howard

Love talking about the weather, technology, and family (and not in that order).

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