A tropical wave that is southeast of the Bahamas will continue moving in our general direction through Saturday giving us a very good chance of rain Friday through Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this area a high chance of development over the next five days. If it were to become a depression or a storm the impacts are about the same, locally heavy rains and breezy conditions. Two to four inches or rain trough Sunday night will be possible due to this system.
As far as the other areas, the yellow “X” is not expected to develop. The orange “X” has a medium chance of developing when it reaches the orange hatch area. We will need to continue to watch that area as we get into the weekend.
Have a good night and I will post an update tomorrow night, or sooner if needed.
We are about 120 hours away from a potential major hurricane making a potential landfall in Florida. A lot of potential and a lot of unknowns still. Going out tonight to fill up the tank with gas was an adventure and that was without any watches or warnings being issued. This is not a bad thing, this is to time to get those last minute items we may need.
With the 5pm advisory we saw the error cone slide slightly to the south with the latest European model run making a landfall in the Martin/St. Lucie county area. At this point most anywhere is Florida has the potential for hurricane force winds, and that is why we prepare now.
The 8pm advisory dropped all watches and warnings that were in effect so we will get the 11pm advisory and will not have another until 5am.
The 8pm model rounds were somewhat tightly grouped and to the north of the area. If this were to be the case we in Pompano and south would not have a wind event to be concerned with but heavy rainfall would still be possible. I major outliers here.
Again, nobody can give a confident answer as to where Dorian will go but be ready regardless of where you are in Florida. Remember to give yourself time to get those items you will need and just be kind, for many this may be their first tropical encounter and we need to show and lead the way to prepare. More tomorrow.
Rain at some point this afternoon is nearly. Retain with the airmass currently over us. Some showers and thunderstorms are already in progress.
NWS is forecasting rainfall amounts through Monday to be in excess of one inch for almost all areas of south Florida. Amounts can vary greatly based on where the activity sets up with the possibility of up to four inches.
Again this is not an all day rain but wherever you are rain will be seen at some point today.
Similar to last evening the widespread rains that have been advertised have diminished during the night time hours. Currently the radar is fairly quiet over land.
As we go into tomorrow and again Sunday activity could flare up and local street flooding is possible in areas where the showers focus on. Latest rain total forecast for the area show one to two inches for the weekend.
Since the rain and cloud cover will not be constant temperatures will still reach or go above 90° on Saturday. Here is the forecasted temps for the next 36 hours.
Again, rain will not be an all day/all night event but some areas could see much more than others. Satellite shows that the activity is not concentrated but rather scattered with areas of heavy rain over east=central Florida and around the Keys.
Also watching an area of disturbed weather that has a 40% chance of development over the next five days but the environment ahead of the wave is not very conducive for development. Latest model runs keep the Center well to the east of Florida and that is with the models that develop it.
I will post an updated rain forecast in the morning.
A fairly tranquil morning with a temp of 77° to begin our weekend in Pompano along with a dew point of 75°. Other observations in the area are about the same.
Offshore we are seeing some increase in shower activity, not widespread, but these may come ashore later this morning.
There is a cold front that is slowly fading away that is aiding in the shower activity now and will contribute to our scattered after showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Pattern will be similar to yesterday where the showers will be slow moving and drifting towards the east coast. Not all will see rain today but do not be surprised.
Temps will be about normal as we see a high of 91° and a low tonight just below 80°. Hour by hour look like this.
Keep the umbrella handy but do not cancel your outdoor plans, just be ready to adjust.
Enjoy your day!
As of 11PM TD3 remains off the coast of SE Florida. Main threat from the system will be possible heavy rain which we are not seeing much of from the system. Current radar and lightning data shows a squall line off of Broward county producing thunder I am hearing Pompano.
On satellite TD3’s presentation has become worse through the evening as convection has died down for now.
Forecast for TD3 is for not much change on the next 12 hours as it moves off towards the northwest then more towards the north tomorrow before being absorbed by a front Wednesday.
Keep an umbrella near tomorrow and if you encounter some of the heavier showers just give it some time to pass before heading out.
Follow me on Twitter for updates if they are needed.
With some mid to level high clouds we are starting this Saturday off at 84° and a dew point of 75°, fairly typical mid July weather. What is a bit unusual is that we have a very, very minimal chance of rain today.
Plenty of sun around today and a high of 90° which again is typical and we certainly can see we are in the doldrums of summer looking at highs and lows for the week to come.
Rain chances will return tomorrow but still nothing wide spread is expected.
Tropical Storm Barry continues to approach Louisiana this morning with some strengthening expected prior to landfall Barry could become a Hurricane. Whether it does or not, the primary threat will be flooding in the area.
Enjoy your Saturday.