9/27/22 – Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Parts of a Broward and All of Palm Beach

Due to the possibility of sustained Tropical Storm winds (39 to 73 mph) are now possible for parts of Broward and all of Palm Beach counties. In summary, Boca Raton north and roughly the western half of Broward.

Watch/Warning map for south Florida

Additional changes in the watches and warnings are possible as we go through the day.

Below is the latest advisory graphic and the latest radar image from Key West where we can now see the eye over western Cuba

9/25/22 – 11pm Work Week Forecast, Ian Impacts

Focusing on the impacts we can expect this week with Ian’s path approach to Florida’s west coast. Here is the summary of what to expect Tuesday through Thursday.

  • Rainfall: 3-8 inches, locally higher in some areas
  • Winds: 15-25 mph sustained, gust to 40 mph in stronger storms
  • Tornadoes: short-lived tornadoes possible Tuesday/Wednesday

Latest models from tonight show little change and are tightly clustered for the first 48 hours

9/25/22 8pm models

Latest advisory graphic:

9/25/22 – 2 PM Ian Update and What to Expect This Week

As of 2pm Ian remains a 50 mph tropical storm that is expected to strengthen rapidly.

2 pm advisory for Tropical Storm Ian.
2 pm model runs.

For this week, if there are no significant changes in the course of Ian, we will see plenty of rain. Current forecast is for seven inches in northern Broward with higher amounts possible.

Rainfall forecast through late Friday night.

With the rain there will be squall lines that will produce heavier rain for a period of time. Localized flooding will be likely. The other threat will be the possibility of tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal risk for Tuesday.

These aspects will continue to be fine tuned as Ian approaches.

9/25/22 Tropical Storm Ian Expected to Strengthen, Rain Will be Biggest Threat at This Time

With the 11am advisory this morning Ian is a 50 mph Tropical Storm. Overall, the forecast track has not changed much with only a very slight shift to the east. All of the southeast Florida area are outside of the cone.

11am Advisory from Tropical Storm Ian

Model consensus remains steady and generally consistent with the forecast track. The European model is a bit east of the tropical models below while the GFS is west of the Euro.

8am models.

I will have a breakdown of expected conditions later this afternoon.

9/24/22 Weekend Forecast and Tropical Storm Ian

In Pompano we are starting the day off at 81° with a dew point of 75°. Today we will see morning clouds followed by a very good chance of showers and some thunderstorms, mainly between 2pm to 8pm. Some of these showers will be slow moving and could produce localized flooding. Tomorrow we are likely to see a few more showers but they will not be slow moving. Today’s high will be 91°.

Last night TD9 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ian. Most of Florida remains in the cone, the area that the center of the storm may travel over in the next five days. There has been some general consensus with the models with a slightly more westward track. Regardless, all of us should continue to monitor Ian for updates. Here is the latest advisory map and official forecast, model tracks, and rainfall totals for the next week.

As of this writing, rainfall will be our primary threat from Ian on the SE Florida coast with rainfall totals between five and eight inches possible.

I will post updates through the day on Twitter @PompanoWeather

9/23/22 Weekend Outlook, Tropical Depression 9 Forms with Florida in the Cone

Eyes are on Tropical Depression 9 that was upgraded this morning at 5 AM with most of Florida in the cone. A few items to keep in mind:

  • Too early to say that Florida will be affected
  • Too early to say what impacts this system will have
  • Use today and the weekend to get supplies you do not have and make plans IF the system were to go this way.
  • Finally, stay calm. The forecasts will become more refined as we go through the weekend. Always check in with the National Hurricane Center site for official information.
5 am advisory on TD9.

For today and the weekend: today will be mostly dry and typically warm with a high of 90°. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow and Sunday with highs of 90° and lows of 79°.

Beyond Sunday our weather will be dependent of the track and intensification of TD9. It is very likely that TD9 will become a Tropical Storm later today or tomorrow.

TD9 and it’s location to Florida.

Models are clustered showing agreement in the flyer track, but this may shift some due to the evolving storm structure and where the actul center forms.

2 am ET model runs.

As of now, one thing we will likely see is rain. Regardless of where the center goes, most of Florida will get rain. The latest seven day rainfall forecast indicates plenty of rain for all of south and central Florida.

WPC seven day rainfall forecast.

I will have an update later this evening. Follow on Twitter for updates at @PompanoWeather

9/18/22 – Work Week Forecast, Fiona Update

We are now in the second half of September already. For the week ahead, we will start with the same pattern we have seen since last week but with a decrease in rain chances by mid-week that will last into the weekend.

Temperatures This Week

HighsMonTuesWedThurFriSatSun
89898990918988

Rainfall this week did add up. All areas of south Florida received more than 100% of average rainfall while most in north Florida were less than average.

I did want to show the highs in Pompano so far in September. The first 12 days had highs of either 92F or 93F. Here is the climate data so far from https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Hurricane Fiona caused major flooding in Puerto Rico today, and reports state that the entire island is currently without power. Fiona is will not directly impact the US, but it will help bring us a nice breeze Wednesday through Thursday. The latest models are in excellent agreement and the latest NHC forecast as of 11pm is below as well.

Models as of 8pm on September 18, 2022.
11pm advisory on September 18, 2022

Have a great Monday.

9/5/22 – Labor Day 2022 Hot and Mostly Dry

Starting Labor Day Monday with 86° in Pompano as we prepare for a high today of 93°. Yes, still quite summer-like today. Latest temps around the SE coast look like this at 8am.

8am temperatures 9/5/22.

Latest satellite shows some clouds and the dry air we had over us is now well to our south.

Water vapor imagery from 755 am this morning.

Overall today only a chance of a shower and a possible thunderstorm. Shower activity will be mostly in the morning areas and more focuses on the west coast in the afternoon and evening. We will see this pattern for the first part of the week.

Since we are now in the Fall, meteorologically, we can start looking at the extended forecast models for the first hints of Fall weather. According the latest GEFS, we are not there yet. The next two weeks appear to not break the Summer patter.

Modeled (GEFS) highs and lows through September 20.

Have a safe and enjoyable Labor Day.

9/3/22 – Nice Labor Day Weekend Ahead, Hurricane Danielle and TS Earl No Threat

As usual this time of year we are already hovering around 90° with dew points between 73° and 75°.

11am temps and dew points.

We have had some drier air work into the area overnight and this will help keep our rain chances down through the Labor Day weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible but not to the extent we have seen over the past week. The dry air can be see on water vapor imagery (in brown on this image).

Water vapor imagery from 1035 am EDT.

Highs today will be around 92° with our lows hovering around 80°.

Tropics have picked up in activity with no threats at this time to the area. Hurricane Danielle is in the North Atlantic and newly formed Tropical Storm Earl north of the Leeward Islands. The 11am advisories and maps are below.

Follow on Twitter for updates @pompanoweather through the weekend.

8/29/22 – Decrease in Shower Activity Tomorrow, a Slight Increase in Temps

Tomorrow we will begin to see a slight drop in our rain chances while we warm up a couple of degrees. The showers we had this morning did produce some gusty winds including a gust to 44mph at Hillsboro Inlet at 7:03am. This activity also helped cool all the reporting stations in the area below 80°. It was refreshing.

Today’s high/low/rainfall.

For the rest of the week we will see the dip in rain chances tomorrow and then bump back up to what we typically see this time of the year from Wednesday through the holiday weekend. Highs just above 90° and lows around 80°.

The tropical wave we mentioned yesterday, 91L, now has a high chance of development and we could see a depression form before the end of the week. It is still early to say where and if the storm will develop.

8pm Tropical Weather Outlook with 91L in red.

Further updates tomorrow.