7/5/21 – Tropical Storm Elsa Approaches Cuba, SE Florida Will Have Some Effects

Tropical Storm Elsa is about 20 miles from the coast of Cuba with maximum winds of 65mph. Elsa is moving NW at 14mph.

11am advisory for Elsa.

Later today and into tomorrow we will feel some effects from Elsa. Our primary threats in Broward and Palm Beach counties will be gusty showers/thunderstorms and the possibility of an isolated tornado and waterspouts. Currently rainfall forecast totals are between one and two inches with peak wind gusts around 30mph. Higher rainfall amounts and higher gusts are possible in isolated areas.

Forecasted rainfall amounts through Wednesday.
Forecasted maximum wind gusts through Wednesday.

All reliable model guidance is in line with the current NHC forecast and at this time there is no reason for any unexpected changes.

8am tropical model guidance.

We are in a Marginal there at of severe weather today due to being in the right, front quadrant of an approaching storm. The greatest threat is Broward county and south.

For the balance of the day we will have clouds and periods of sun while shower activity will increase with the wind. High today 90°F.

7/4/21 11am – Tropical Storm Elsa Slowing Down and Somewhat Disorganized

With the 11am advisory Tropical Storm Elsa is located about 50 miles north of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 13mph. Maximum winds are estimated at 60mph.

Tropical Storm Elsa at 1035am EDT July 4, 2021.

Reconassisnce aircraft has been investigating Elsa this morning and have found it somewhat disorganized with a higher pressure than what is normally observed in storms with this strength. Also the storm is not well aligned with westerly shear separating the low level circulation from the mid and upper levels.

The latest forecast and keeps all of southeast Florida out of the cone but we can still expect effects late Monday going through Tuesday.

Rainfall of one to four inches will be possible in and around Pompano with gusty winds and a slight possibility if isolated tornadoes. Latest rainfall forecast for the next three days shows all areas expecting more than an inch of rain.

Latest tropical models remain consistent with the track of the storm and line up with the latest official NHC forecast.

More immediately, we can expect hot weather for our Fourth of July with isolated showers possible this afternoon, highs around 92°F with dew points this afternoon around 76°F.

Have a safe holiday, an update will be up early this evening.

7/3/2021 – 8am Hurricane Elsa

Hurricane Elsa has weakened a bit since last night but maintains hurricane status with maximum winds of 75mph and a minimum pressure of 999mb. Elsa is moving very quickly towards the WNW at 31mph.

Latest location with the 5am forecast cone are below showing extreme SE Florida just beyond the boarder. This does not mean we are clear, just the center is not likely to track over us. We can expect rain and gusty winds Monday and into Tuesday, though this is still very fluid.

Latest visible image of Hurricane Elsa.

Latest model plots continue to favor west of south Florida.

For the weekend, we should see less rain than in the previous couple days. Rainfall amounts are expected to be less than an inch.

I will have an update after the 11am advisory.

3/6/21 – Showers Very Likely Saturday, Less so on Sunday

Though the air is relatively dry tonight we will see the atmosphere moisten up as a frontal system approaches and then goes through the area Saturday afternoon and into early Sunday morning. The latest HRRR model shows the progression of this system and the potential rainfall through the area.

HRRR model run 8pm Friday through Sunday afternoon.

Not expecting any wide-spread severe weather over the weekend though thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible. Rainfall totals could be up to an inch, with some locally higher amounts possible.

72 hour rainfall totals, NWS forecast.

Sunday looks clearer and will be a better day for outdoor activities.

I will update Saturday morning with the latest including rainfall estimates and if anything changes on the severe weather threat.

Happy Thanksgiving 2020 – Almost Perfect South Fla Weather

Happy Thanksgiving and we have almost a weather-perfect day to be outside with only the slightest chance of an afternoon shower. Just keep that in mind if you are having your meal outside but this will only be a very isolated issue and should be quick.

Otherwise we will have some clouds, a nice breeze, and a high of 80F. This should be the trend we see through the holiday weekend with only the slightest chance of a fast moving shower.

After the weekend we will be watching for the cold front that will really change on weather starting Tuesday, a nice drop in temps coming up.

Enjoy your holiday as I share this Tweet:

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6/6/20 – Flood Watch as Tropical Storm Cristobal Moves North

Certainly a cloudy, humid morning to start our weekend while we are under a Flood Watch through at least this evening. Rain threat is indirectly caused from Tropical Storm Cristobal in the central Gulf of Mexico.

Cristobal is a lop-sided storm with dry air on the west side and all the moisture and wind on the east. Activity will move from Cristobal towards Florida. Current radar shows most of this activity not quite making it over to the east coast but there is plenty of moisture and with daytime heating we may see showers and thunderstorms especially this afternoon and evening.

Though forecasted rainfall amounts are not high, it would not take much above these values to caused localized flooding in south Florida. This is why the Flood Watch is in effect, even though most areas around Pompano are expecting less than a quarter of an inch.

Thunderstorms are also possible today and areas to our west do have a Marginal chance of severe weather. I will be watching this today and will update if the severe weather chances are bumped up for the east coast.

Temp wise we are looking for a high of 84° with the before mentioned clouds and winds picking up a bit. Overall not feeling too bad out there even with dew points around 75°.

Enjoy the day!

5/30/20 – Warm with Some Clouds, Questionable Launch Weather

We are in store for a very pleasant weather day with some clouds and warm temps with just a few spotty showers around this afternoon. High today will be 87°. Tomorrow will be much the same with a slightly better chance of rain. Hour by hour temps:

Launch weather to our north does not look as favorable with rain associated with afternoon convention around that is likely to hamper the launch this afternoon. Both the Euro and HRRR show rain around 3pm.

The official NWS forecast at 3pm is not encouraging at all for Cape Canaveral. Calling for a likely chance of rain and thunder before and after launch time.

Finally for this morning, still watching the tropics as a disturbance in the Atlantic looks a bit better organized this morning but it appears some dry air in the area may inhibit development. Currently the NHC gives it a medium chance of development over the next five days. Regardless this will not impact Florida.

I will try to update Twitter later with launch weather updates.

5/29/20 – Better Weather Weekend and Launch Forecast

After a couple of rainy weather weekend we are in for a change as most of the coastal areas of Broward and Palm Beach counties should be rain free through the weekend. There will be a mixture of clouds and sun with highs on Saturday 87° after a low of 78°. NWS rainfall map for the next three days.

I have had a few questions about tomorrow’s launch forecast for SpaceX Falcon 9 Dragon Crew Demo-2 and it looks quite iffy. NASA currently give a 50% chance of permissible weather with the weather threats being rain and rules not allowing flight through cumulus clouds and anvils.

Latest EURO shows rain in the general area mid afternoon tomorrow.

The latest HRRR predictive radar also indicate rain in the east Central Florida area.

I will post an update in the morning with the latest data and also more on the tropical disturbance being monitored in the Atlantic, that is not a threat to our area.

Have a good evening.

5/25/20 – Flood Watch Continues, Heaviest Rains Affecting the Area Now

As we enter the late afternoon rain has picked up over the east coast areas with many areas having now received well over an inch of rain in the past couple of hours. Radar shows this activity lifting north with more behind it.

Infrared satellite shows an impressive area of cooler tops off the coast with lightning now being detected.

Rain will continue through the evening with occasional breaks. Will update later with areas rainfall amounts. Check Twitter for quick updates as we continue through the evening,

5/24/20 – Memorial Day Weekend, Flood Watch Begins at 2PM

Remembering those who gave all they could to our country.

We have a wet balance of the Memorial Day weekend coming up as the NWS has issued a Flood Watch for all of South Florida that will begin at 2pm. Current forecast call for between two and four inches with up to six inches in isolated areas. Flood Watch will run through tomorrow.

The latest HRRR model shows rain being in the area trough the next 36 hours but there will be some occasional break

With the exceeding cloud cover and rain temps today will struggle to climb today, expecting a high today around 82° and about the same tomorrow.

Certainly a good day to stay in (I know) and if you have to go out watch where you drive and remember if you cannot see the bottom of a puddle, “Turn Around, Don’t Drown.”