Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed from the system I posted about last night. Max winds are 45 mph. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Bahamas. I would expect watches or warnings to be issued for parts of south Florida later today or tomorrow morning.
Impacts have not changed, strong gusty winds and rainfall up to five inches will affect the area starting late Tuesday through Thursday.
I will post updates through the day on Twitter and another post here this evening.
Generally in November we do not see much activity, but this November has been different with just first the six days. We have had two hurricanes in the Atlantic, Lisa and Martin, and now we are expecting development of the system designated 98L.
With that said, we can expect rain and wind mid to late week. Expected conditions include sustained winds up to 30 mph and gusts to 45 mph (tropical storm force) along with rainfall totals of up to four inches.
This forecast will be refined as we go into the week, please stay tuned and check back. On to the graphics.
I will have an update Monday morning and may update via Twitter later this evening if needed.
Almost a tranquil morning with just a couple of showers well offshore. In Pompano we have a temp of 73° and a dew point of 69°. Not quite as cool as yesterday morning but still refreshing. From satellite our weather is quite calmer than when we had Ian nearby.
Today we could see a shower mid to late afternoon otherwise we will see a day like yesterday with a bit more warmth, high 87°. We can expect nearly the same tomorrow.
Due to the possibility of sustained Tropical Storm winds (39 to 73 mph) are now possible for parts of Broward and all of Palm Beach counties. In summary, Boca Raton north and roughly the western half of Broward.
Additional changes in the watches and warnings are possible as we go through the day.
Below is the latest advisory graphic and the latest radar image from Key West where we can now see the eye over western Cuba
As of 2pm Ian remains a 50 mph tropical storm that is expected to strengthen rapidly.
For this week, if there are no significant changes in the course of Ian, we will see plenty of rain. Current forecast is for seven inches in northern Broward with higher amounts possible.
With the rain there will be squall lines that will produce heavier rain for a period of time. Localized flooding will be likely. The other threat will be the possibility of tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal risk for Tuesday.
These aspects will continue to be fine tuned as Ian approaches.
With the 11am advisory this morning Ian is a 50 mph Tropical Storm. Overall, the forecast track has not changed much with only a very slight shift to the east. All of the southeast Florida area are outside of the cone.
Model consensus remains steady and generally consistent with the forecast track. The European model is a bit east of the tropical models below while the GFS is west of the Euro.
I will have a breakdown of expected conditions later this afternoon.
In Pompano we are starting the day off at 81° with a dew point of 75°. Today we will see morning clouds followed by a very good chance of showers and some thunderstorms, mainly between 2pm to 8pm. Some of these showers will be slow moving and could produce localized flooding. Tomorrow we are likely to see a few more showers but they will not be slow moving. Today’s high will be 91°.
Last night TD9 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ian. Most of Florida remains in the cone, the area that the center of the storm may travel over in the next five days. There has been some general consensus with the models with a slightly more westward track. Regardless, all of us should continue to monitor Ian for updates. Here is the latest advisory map and official forecast, model tracks, and rainfall totals for the next week.
As of this writing, rainfall will be our primary threat from Ian on the SE Florida coast with rainfall totals between five and eight inches possible.
I will post updates through the day on Twitter @PompanoWeather
Eyes are on Tropical Depression 9 that was upgraded this morning at 5 AM with most of Florida in the cone. A few items to keep in mind:
Too early to say that Florida will be affected
Too early to say what impacts this system will have
Use today and the weekend to get supplies you do not have and make plans IF the system were to go this way.
Finally, stay calm. The forecasts will become more refined as we go through the weekend. Always check in with the National Hurricane Center site for official information.
For today and the weekend: today will be mostly dry and typically warm with a high of 90°. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow and Sunday with highs of 90° and lows of 79°.
Beyond Sunday our weather will be dependent of the track and intensification of TD9. It is very likely that TD9 will become a Tropical Storm later today or tomorrow.
Models are clustered showing agreement in the flyer track, but this may shift some due to the evolving storm structure and where the actul center forms.
As of now, one thing we will likely see is rain. Regardless of where the center goes, most of Florida will get rain. The latest seven day rainfall forecast indicates plenty of rain for all of south and central Florida.
I will have an update later this evening. Follow on Twitter for updates at @PompanoWeather