Good morning and starting the day at 85° under mostly cloudy skies. Similar to yesterday there will be showers and some thunderstorms around, but most will not see all day rain. You will still be able to get outside without getting wet. Though, a Flood Watch will remain in effect until this evening for areas that may see heavy rain. High today will be 89°.
The tropics are busy, the remnants of Fred should reorganize today and head into the panhandle of Florida as a tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Grace remains a small, compact storm with an uncertain future. SE Florida is currently out of the cone but this could change as land interactions will inhibit strengthening while if it remains north (or even south) of the islands will allow slow, steady strengthening. Grace will need to be watched as we go into the new week. Some of the latest models show there is some consensus but it is not unanimous.
I will have more later on Grace and the week ahead. Enjoy your day.
Quick update, watching PTC 6 that was designated earlier this evening. As of 11pm south Florida remains in the forecast cone as the system continues to develop. Currently, most model guidance is in line with the official forecasts keeping what is likely to become Tropical Storm Fred below hurricane strength through five days. Impacts from the storm are likely to affect the area between Friday and Sunday with the primary threat being heavy rain and gusty winds. It is too early to determine the exact extent but as of now the worst case would be five or six inches of rain and wind gusts up to 45 mph.
We will need to continue to monitor this storm through the week. I will have further updates tomorrow.
I have received a few calls and emails this afternoon and evening about Irma. All of us want to know where it will go, and when, and how strong. The honest answer to all of those questions is that it is still too early to tell. There are so many factors that we do not know yet that the best answer to just to be ready. Ready as we all should be at the start of hurricane season.
There is a lot of misinformation I have seen tonight and it clouds the real story for those who may not know what it is like to experience a hurricane or are just confused. Some examples:
Irma is to be a category 6 – there is no such thing and the NHC, WMO, or any organization will not just come up with a new standard in middle of a season.
Irma is going to obliterate a city – we do not know where it will go, and no idea of how strong, Again just a way to get us to click a link. Do not do it.
Stick to the sources you know and trust. And when in doubt the National Hurricane Center will give you the official word along with your local National Weather Service office. For those of us in south Florida that would be the Miami office.
I enjoy sharing my thoughts, my forecasts, and my opinions on our weather but would never want to confuse my readers or contradict official sources. I will always do my best to respond to your tweets and questions along with providing relevant information.
So for Irma, the best we can do right now is stay informed. Check in on the storm’s progress a few times a day as we go into this week. Pick up any supplie you may not have or might be low on. Especially batteries and water since they are always in short supply as a storm nears. There is no need to panic, just prepare at this point.
Oh, and here is the latest on Irma from the National Hurricane Center as of 8pm tonight. Advisories and official track forecasts are issued at 5am/pm and 11am/pm.
Colin will approach Florida over the next 24 hours as he moves through the Gulf of Mexico. Rain will affect most of the state over the next days. Along the southeast coast we will see from one-half to three inches of rain depending on how the rain bands/squalls set up. Main threats will be local flooding, gusty winds, and the possibility of a tornado with these squall lines.
With two named storms so far this year today marks the beginning of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Alex formed in January and Bonnie from last week, the list of the names for the season are as follows:
I will tweet some of the more interesting articles I find today, you can find those links at @pompanoweather
As we enter the 2016 season I always find it interesting the forecasts that organizations put out. Granted there is not much value in these forecasts besides for statistical purposes. Possible in time we will see these numbers have the reliability of “today’s high temperature” since we do know that if you are affected by one storm it could be a very bad year.
I do want to note that NOAA’s forecast is interestingly broad. NOAA’s range is from slightly below average (nine named storms) to 25% above average (16 named storms). As with any discipline you must practice and practice to get any better.
Here are the numbers as of now. I will update the list as we move through the season.
It is that time of the year to start watching the tropics. Over the past couple days the GFS and Euro have been picking up on some future tropical/sub-tropical development in the western Atlantic in the north Bahamas area. The National Hurricane Center did issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook earlier this afternoon to begin awareness of the possibility.
Just looked at the latest GFS which shows a system affecting the north Florida to Carolina area in the Momday time frame. This is something to watch and far from a certainty at this this point. Below shows a closed low coming into the South Carolina coast early Monday morning with this afternoon’s GFS.
I will post an update tomorrow evening. Follow @PompanoWeather for more.