Just a quick post that for the sixth year in a row we may see a named storm form prior to June 1. Models are indicating that a low may form southeast of Florida and move north over the Bahamas where it could further develop into a tropical storm. The area the NHC has indicated where it may form is in red this weekend.
Though we will have a good chance of rain Friday through the weekend we will see no direct impacts besides the rain from this system if it develops. Global models all indicate that the system will move AWAY from Florida. The latest ensemble from the Euro help depict this.
I will have an update later this week on the evolution of this system and our weekend weather.
After running with above a average temps for most of the past month we will have a string of closer to normal highs for the next week. A cold front is draped across Florida this morning with plenty of clouds and some showers across central and south Florida. At 5am temps across southeast Florida are in the mid 70s. Sensors at Pompano Airpark have been having issues this week and not reporting regularly.
By 8am the boundary will be over south Florida with our main rain threat occurring between 10am and 3pm.
After the front passes winds will shift out of the north and we will feel drier and some cooler air. Combine that with the clouds earlier on we may not exceed 80° today. Expect a high of 79° this afternoon, here is the hour by hour temperature through tomorrow afternoon.
By tomorrow we will be back to around 80° for a high and very pleasant. Another front is expected next week and that will help keep our high temps closer to normal for the next five to six days.
Do not let the radar and satellite fool you, not the best looking day but there is potential to enjoy some time outside today.
Tropical Storm Nestor is bringing the bulk of the weather to our west and north where a Tornado Watch is currently in effect. For us starting the day at a summer-like 81° we have and will see some more rain but we will not have rain all day. As the day progresses we will see winds pick up with some gusts above 20mph. Keep the umbrella around in other words. Weather hazards today for our area will be possible lightning, gusty winds, and with some of the heavier rain we have had if showers linger we could see some localized flooding. Rainfall amounts will generally be between one-quarter and one-half inch around SE Florida today. High today 88°
Tomorrow we will see some clearing but the chance of rain will remain.
Tropical Storm Nestor is not a typical system with much of the weather and wind on the east side of the Storm. Currently max winds are 50mph and beyond what we see today will not really impact our weather going into tomorrow and beyond.
A warm late September morning with a temperature of 81° and a dewpoint of 72°. A contrast to our lows earlier this week when we were waking up to temps around 70°.
Tropical Storm Karen has degenerated and absorbed into a trough in Atlantic, there will be no further threat from this one. Current satellite image from this morning shows not much of anything .
Elsewhere in the Atlantic the only item being watched is Hurricane Lorenzo which has max winds of 115mph and again will not affect us or any other US lan area. No other areas of concern at this time.
For this weekend locally it will be warm and almost rain free, there will be widely scattered, quick moving showers but nothing that should keep us inside or postpone weekend sport activities. Hourly temps through tomorrow afternoon will be in a narrow range with a high today of 89°.
The saga of where Tropical Storm Karen will go has been fascinating, especially the consistent forecast of some kind of “loop” or sharp southwest turn the system may make in response to a ridge over the eastern US.
The latest official forecast and model output above shows the next five days of possible motion. What is not shown is the intensity of Karen IF the cyclone can maintain its structure for that long. There are some inhibiting factors such as dry air and shear that will have some effects on the storm. Even tonight TS Karen does not look well structured.
At this time it is too early to say if Karen will maintain tropical characteristics and where it will go. With the 11pm advisory Karen is barely a tropical Storm with winds of 40mph. At this point we need to continue to watch Karen and see if it strengthens and where it will go.
I will post an update tomorrow evening along with the weekend forecast.
A tropical wave that is southeast of the Bahamas will continue moving in our general direction through Saturday giving us a very good chance of rain Friday through Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this area a high chance of development over the next five days. If it were to become a depression or a storm the impacts are about the same, locally heavy rains and breezy conditions. Two to four inches or rain trough Sunday night will be possible due to this system.
As far as the other areas, the yellow “X” is not expected to develop. The orange “X” has a medium chance of developing when it reaches the orange hatch area. We will need to continue to watch that area as we get into the weekend.
Have a good night and I will post an update tomorrow night, or sooner if needed.
We are about 120 hours away from a potential major hurricane making a potential landfall in Florida. A lot of potential and a lot of unknowns still. Going out tonight to fill up the tank with gas was an adventure and that was without any watches or warnings being issued. This is not a bad thing, this is to time to get those last minute items we may need.
With the 5pm advisory we saw the error cone slide slightly to the south with the latest European model run making a landfall in the Martin/St. Lucie county area. At this point most anywhere is Florida has the potential for hurricane force winds, and that is why we prepare now.
The 8pm advisory dropped all watches and warnings that were in effect so we will get the 11pm advisory and will not have another until 5am.
The 8pm model rounds were somewhat tightly grouped and to the north of the area. If this were to be the case we in Pompano and south would not have a wind event to be concerned with but heavy rainfall would still be possible. I major outliers here.
Again, nobody can give a confident answer as to where Dorian will go but be ready regardless of where you are in Florida. Remember to give yourself time to get those items you will need and just be kind, for many this may be their first tropical encounter and we need to show and lead the way to prepare. More tomorrow.
Rain at some point this afternoon is nearly. Retain with the airmass currently over us. Some showers and thunderstorms are already in progress.
NWS is forecasting rainfall amounts through Monday to be in excess of one inch for almost all areas of south Florida. Amounts can vary greatly based on where the activity sets up with the possibility of up to four inches.
Again this is not an all day rain but wherever you are rain will be seen at some point today.
Similar to last evening the widespread rains that have been advertised have diminished during the night time hours. Currently the radar is fairly quiet over land.
As we go into tomorrow and again Sunday activity could flare up and local street flooding is possible in areas where the showers focus on. Latest rain total forecast for the area show one to two inches for the weekend.
Since the rain and cloud cover will not be constant temperatures will still reach or go above 90° on Saturday. Here is the forecasted temps for the next 36 hours.
Again, rain will not be an all day/all night event but some areas could see much more than others. Satellite shows that the activity is not concentrated but rather scattered with areas of heavy rain over east=central Florida and around the Keys.
Also watching an area of disturbed weather that has a 40% chance of development over the next five days but the environment ahead of the wave is not very conducive for development. Latest model runs keep the Center well to the east of Florida and that is with the models that develop it.
I will post an updated rain forecast in the morning.