8/15/21 – Flood Watch Continues, Not a Washout Today

Good morning and starting the day at 85° under mostly cloudy skies. Similar to yesterday there will be showers and some thunderstorms around, but most will not see all day rain. You will still be able to get outside without getting wet. Though, a Flood Watch will remain in effect until this evening for areas that may see heavy rain. High today will be 89°.

The tropics are busy, the remnants of Fred should reorganize today and head into the panhandle of Florida as a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Grace remains a small, compact storm with an uncertain future. SE Florida is currently out of the cone but this could change as land interactions will inhibit strengthening while if it remains north (or even south) of the islands will allow slow, steady strengthening. Grace will need to be watched as we go into the new week. Some of the latest models show there is some consensus but it is not unanimous.

8/15/21 8am advisory on Grace.
8/15/21 2am ET model runs for Grace.

I will have more later on Grace and the week ahead. Enjoy your day.

8/12/21 8am – Fred is a Disorganized Mess, Rain is Certain for the Weekend

As of this morning Fred is very disorganized with a broad rotation as it emerged off the coast of Haiti early this morning. Recon is currently investigating the storm and has yet to find any tropical storm force winds. Fred will continue to be watched as it is now over warm waters to see how/if it evolves while traveling in the direction of Florida.

Current forecast has not really changed, and with a disorganized system the overall intensity is not the concern. Rainfall could be plentiful this weekend, the Weather Prediction Center latest forecast calls for areas of five plus inches through this weekend for parts of SE Florida.

Latest tropical models remain consistent and in line with the current NHC forecast.

Current forecast time line is for shower activity to ramp up on Friday and rain should be plentiful Saturday with some gusty winds. By Sunday shower activity will likely decrease into the afternoon and into the evening.

More updates later today with quick updates on Twitter PompanoWeather

7/5/21 – Tropical Storm Elsa Approaches Cuba, SE Florida Will Have Some Effects

Tropical Storm Elsa is about 20 miles from the coast of Cuba with maximum winds of 65mph. Elsa is moving NW at 14mph.

11am advisory for Elsa.

Later today and into tomorrow we will feel some effects from Elsa. Our primary threats in Broward and Palm Beach counties will be gusty showers/thunderstorms and the possibility of an isolated tornado and waterspouts. Currently rainfall forecast totals are between one and two inches with peak wind gusts around 30mph. Higher rainfall amounts and higher gusts are possible in isolated areas.

Forecasted rainfall amounts through Wednesday.
Forecasted maximum wind gusts through Wednesday.

All reliable model guidance is in line with the current NHC forecast and at this time there is no reason for any unexpected changes.

8am tropical model guidance.

We are in a Marginal there at of severe weather today due to being in the right, front quadrant of an approaching storm. The greatest threat is Broward county and south.

For the balance of the day we will have clouds and periods of sun while shower activity will increase with the wind. High today 90°F.

7/4/21 11am – Tropical Storm Elsa Slowing Down and Somewhat Disorganized

With the 11am advisory Tropical Storm Elsa is located about 50 miles north of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 13mph. Maximum winds are estimated at 60mph.

Tropical Storm Elsa at 1035am EDT July 4, 2021.

Reconassisnce aircraft has been investigating Elsa this morning and have found it somewhat disorganized with a higher pressure than what is normally observed in storms with this strength. Also the storm is not well aligned with westerly shear separating the low level circulation from the mid and upper levels.

The latest forecast and keeps all of southeast Florida out of the cone but we can still expect effects late Monday going through Tuesday.

Rainfall of one to four inches will be possible in and around Pompano with gusty winds and a slight possibility if isolated tornadoes. Latest rainfall forecast for the next three days shows all areas expecting more than an inch of rain.

Latest tropical models remain consistent with the track of the storm and line up with the latest official NHC forecast.

More immediately, we can expect hot weather for our Fourth of July with isolated showers possible this afternoon, highs around 92°F with dew points this afternoon around 76°F.

Have a safe holiday, an update will be up early this evening.

7/3/2021 – 8am Hurricane Elsa

Hurricane Elsa has weakened a bit since last night but maintains hurricane status with maximum winds of 75mph and a minimum pressure of 999mb. Elsa is moving very quickly towards the WNW at 31mph.

Latest location with the 5am forecast cone are below showing extreme SE Florida just beyond the boarder. This does not mean we are clear, just the center is not likely to track over us. We can expect rain and gusty winds Monday and into Tuesday, though this is still very fluid.

Latest visible image of Hurricane Elsa.

Latest model plots continue to favor west of south Florida.

For the weekend, we should see less rain than in the previous couple days. Rainfall amounts are expected to be less than an inch.

I will have an update after the 11am advisory.