Eyes are on Tropical Depression 9 that was upgraded this morning at 5 AM with most of Florida in the cone. A few items to keep in mind:
Too early to say that Florida will be affected
Too early to say what impacts this system will have
Use today and the weekend to get supplies you do not have and make plans IF the system were to go this way.
Finally, stay calm. The forecasts will become more refined as we go through the weekend. Always check in with the National Hurricane Center site for official information.
For today and the weekend: today will be mostly dry and typically warm with a high of 90°. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow and Sunday with highs of 90° and lows of 79°.
Beyond Sunday our weather will be dependent of the track and intensification of TD9. It is very likely that TD9 will become a Tropical Storm later today or tomorrow.
Models are clustered showing agreement in the flyer track, but this may shift some due to the evolving storm structure and where the actul center forms.
As of now, one thing we will likely see is rain. Regardless of where the center goes, most of Florida will get rain. The latest seven day rainfall forecast indicates plenty of rain for all of south and central Florida.
I will have an update later this evening. Follow on Twitter for updates at @PompanoWeather
We are now in the second half of September already. For the week ahead, we will start with the same pattern we have seen since last week but with a decrease in rain chances by mid-week that will last into the weekend.
Temperatures This Week
Rainfall this week did add up. All areas of south Florida received more than 100% of average rainfall while most in north Florida were less than average.
I did want to show the highs in Pompano so far in September. The first 12 days had highs of either 92F or 93F. Here is the climate data so far from https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/
Hurricane Fiona caused major flooding in Puerto Rico today, and reports state that the entire island is currently without power. Fiona is will not directly impact the US, but it will help bring us a nice breeze Wednesday through Thursday. The latest models are in excellent agreement and the latest NHC forecast as of 11pm is below as well.
Starting Labor Day Monday with 86° in Pompano as we prepare for a high today of 93°. Yes, still quite summer-like today. Latest temps around the SE coast look like this at 8am.
Latest satellite shows some clouds and the dry air we had over us is now well to our south.
Overall today only a chance of a shower and a possible thunderstorm. Shower activity will be mostly in the morning areas and more focuses on the west coast in the afternoon and evening. We will see this pattern for the first part of the week.
Since we are now in the Fall, meteorologically, we can start looking at the extended forecast models for the first hints of Fall weather. According the latest GEFS, we are not there yet. The next two weeks appear to not break the Summer patter.
As usual this time of year we are already hovering around 90° with dew points between 73° and 75°.
We have had some drier air work into the area overnight and this will help keep our rain chances down through the Labor Day weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible but not to the extent we have seen over the past week. The dry air can be see on water vapor imagery (in brown on this image).
Highs today will be around 92° with our lows hovering around 80°.
Tropics have picked up in activity with no threats at this time to the area. Hurricane Danielle is in the North Atlantic and newly formed Tropical Storm Earl north of the Leeward Islands. The 11am advisories and maps are below.
Follow on Twitter for updates @pompanoweather through the weekend.
Tomorrow we will begin to see a slight drop in our rain chances while we warm up a couple of degrees. The showers we had this morning did produce some gusty winds including a gust to 44mph at Hillsboro Inlet at 7:03am. This activity also helped cool all the reporting stations in the area below 80°. It was refreshing.
For the rest of the week we will see the dip in rain chances tomorrow and then bump back up to what we typically see this time of the year from Wednesday through the holiday weekend. Highs just above 90° and lows around 80°.
The tropical wave we mentioned yesterday, 91L, now has a high chance of development and we could see a depression form before the end of the week. It is still early to say where and if the storm will develop.
As we head into a holiday weekend, we will see another week where we will see some shower activity in the mornings. Afternoons will continue quite warm with some scattered showers around. Morning temps will be around 80F and the midafternoon temps around 91F.
The tropics have started to come alive after a mostly dormant August. This is not typical at all. On average, there are two named storms in the month. The 8pm Tropical Weather Outlooks indicates four areas being monitored; one of these areas (in red) has a high chance of development in the next five days.
There are no immediate concerns for south Florida at this time. Though, all of us should have our storm supplies and plans ready.
The latest models on this system show some modest development as it treks across the Atlantic.
Please follow the site on Twitter @PompanoWeather for local weather updates and tropical news.
And just like that, summer vacation is over. As many of us return to our daily school schedules here is what we can expect Tuesday.
Sunrise will be at 6:53 am with a few clouds and an possible isolated shower. Temperature will be 79°. For the afternoon, a better chance of showers and some thunderstorms, not expecting the coverage we saw today. High tomorrow will be 90°.
For the rest of the week we will see a similar pattern with the only change being a decrease in the afternoon rain chances.
Not a bad weather weekend ahead, though be prepared for some showers and possible thunderstorms as we go into Saturday and Sunday. Highs will continue to hover around 90° with lows around 80°.
Rainfall totals will be modest for those who do see rain, between a quarter and one-half inch through Sunday night.
For those who may head out tonight to Pompano’s Old Town Untapped we should be mostly rain free, though a quick passing shower is possible. Temperature will be around 85° with partly cloudy skies and a light breeze.
Though we are seeing some showers and thunderstorms this Sunday afternoon the week ahead will be quite warm with highs in the lower 90s. Rain chance the first part of the week will be low followed by a better chance of showers Thursday and Friday. Through Wednesday we may see between one-quarter and one-half inch of rain. Central and the panhandle part of the start will see greater amounts.
For tropical weather we will be watching a trough of low pressure over the southeast US that could generate an area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico by late week. I am not expecting this to directly affect us in south Florida.
A night of steady rain which at times was heavy will continue into our Saturday. As PTC1 approaches the southwest Florida coast we will see some of the activity pickup. Rain will subside late this afternoon then into the evening as PTC1 moves off of Florida into the Atlantic.
I will have more updates on Twitter today, feel free to share any pictures you have of the storm today.