Quick update, watching PTC 6 that was designated earlier this evening. As of 11pm south Florida remains in the forecast cone as the system continues to develop. Currently, most model guidance is in line with the official forecasts keeping what is likely to become Tropical Storm Fred below hurricane strength through five days. Impacts from the storm are likely to affect the area between Friday and Sunday with the primary threat being heavy rain and gusty winds. It is too early to determine the exact extent but as of now the worst case would be five or six inches of rain and wind gusts up to 45 mph.
We will need to continue to monitor this storm through the week. I will have further updates tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Elsa is about 20 miles from the coast of Cuba with maximum winds of 65mph. Elsa is moving NW at 14mph.
Later today and into tomorrow we will feel some effects from Elsa. Our primary threats in Broward and Palm Beach counties will be gusty showers/thunderstorms and the possibility of an isolated tornado and waterspouts. Currently rainfall forecast totals are between one and two inches with peak wind gusts around 30mph. Higher rainfall amounts and higher gusts are possible in isolated areas.
All reliable model guidance is in line with the current NHC forecast and at this time there is no reason for any unexpected changes.
We are in a Marginal there at of severe weather today due to being in the right, front quadrant of an approaching storm. The greatest threat is Broward county and south.
For the balance of the day we will have clouds and periods of sun while shower activity will increase with the wind. High today 90°F.
With the 11am advisory Tropical Storm Elsa is located about 50 miles north of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 13mph. Maximum winds are estimated at 60mph.
Reconassisnce aircraft has been investigating Elsa this morning and have found it somewhat disorganized with a higher pressure than what is normally observed in storms with this strength. Also the storm is not well aligned with westerly shear separating the low level circulation from the mid and upper levels.
The latest forecast and keeps all of southeast Florida out of the cone but we can still expect effects late Monday going through Tuesday.
Rainfall of one to four inches will be possible in and around Pompano with gusty winds and a slight possibility if isolated tornadoes. Latest rainfall forecast for the next three days shows all areas expecting more than an inch of rain.
Latest tropical models remain consistent with the track of the storm and line up with the latest official NHC forecast.
More immediately, we can expect hot weather for our Fourth of July with isolated showers possible this afternoon, highs around 92°F with dew points this afternoon around 76°F.
Have a safe holiday, an update will be up early this evening.
Hurricane Elsa has weakened a bit since last night but maintains hurricane status with maximum winds of 75mph and a minimum pressure of 999mb. Elsa is moving very quickly towards the WNW at 31mph.
Latest location with the 5am forecast cone are below showing extreme SE Florida just beyond the boarder. This does not mean we are clear, just the center is not likely to track over us. We can expect rain and gusty winds Monday and into Tuesday, though this is still very fluid.
Latest model plots continue to favor west of south Florida.
For the weekend, we should see less rain than in the previous couple days. Rainfall amounts are expected to be less than an inch.
This is a test post using QGIS to produce and publish maps.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed several
hundred miles east of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is
expected to form within this broad cloud system a few hundred miles
northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow and produce gale-force winds. The
low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer
waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical
cyclone late Friday and into the weekend near and to the northeast
of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and
northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into
Monday. For more information on this developing system, please
see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
For those who have been outside recently you may be able to feel the air is a bit heavier than usual. We do have a Slight chance of severe weather across all of south Florida and we are currently in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8PM.
Current radar shows activity expanding and moving into the area. The Pompano area should begin to experience more persistent rain b about 4pm. As of this writing Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are starting be issued for activity in Palm Beach county and north.
Most of the severe weather should be out of the area by 6:30pm with rain lingering into the evening.
Follow on Twitter for updates through this afternoon and evening.
As mentioned last night, we are still looking at a very good chance of showers and even a possible thunderstorm. Showers will begin to form after 12 noon and become more widespread later afternoon and into the evening. Activity will begin to decrease in the late evening and overnight hours. Rainfall amounts have come down some with likely amounts in the half-inch to one inch area.
Sunday continues to appear dryer with only scattered showers across the area at most.
Though the air is relatively dry tonight we will see the atmosphere moisten up as a frontal system approaches and then goes through the area Saturday afternoon and into early Sunday morning. The latest HRRR model shows the progression of this system and the potential rainfall through the area.
Not expecting any wide-spread severe weather over the weekend though thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible. Rainfall totals could be up to an inch, with some locally higher amounts possible.
Sunday looks clearer and will be a better day for outdoor activities.
I will update Saturday morning with the latest including rainfall estimates and if anything changes on the severe weather threat.
Happy Thanksgiving and we have almost a weather-perfect day to be outside with only the slightest chance of an afternoon shower. Just keep that in mind if you are having your meal outside but this will only be a very isolated issue and should be quick.
Otherwise we will have some clouds, a nice breeze, and a high of 80F. This should be the trend we see through the holiday weekend with only the slightest chance of a fast moving shower.
After the weekend we will be watching for the cold front that will really change on weather starting Tuesday, a nice drop in temps coming up.
Enjoy your holiday as I share this Tweet:
As we head into the holidays, it’s important we are socially distant, but not emotionally distant. Take some time to text a loved one you haven’t seen in a while, check in on your single friends, or write that letter you’ve been putting off. We will get through this together.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 1045 AM EST…
* At 1021 AM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a gusty shower over Downtown Fort Lauderdale, or near Fort Lauderdale, moving west at 5 mph.
* Funnel clouds possible with this shower.
* Locations impacted include… Fort Lauderdale, Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac, Lauderhill, Oakland Park, Lauderdale Lakes, Dania Beach, Wilton Manors, Lazy Lake, St. George, Downtown Fort Lauderdale, Broadview Park, Franklin Park, Golden Heights, Melrose Park, Chula Vista, Washington Park, Fort Lauderdale – Hollywood International Airport and Boulevard Gardens.
This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and local media for additional updates and possible warnings.