6/3/22 1015pm – Tropical Storm Warning and Flood Watch

Not much change to the forecast and expectations overnight and into Saturday. The system does not have a closed circulation, hence it is still Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 (PTC1) Here is the latest forecast and the Tropical Storm Warnings in effect.

8pm Advisory for PTC1.

The system is not well organized with all of the convection east of the broad low pressure center. This is easier seen on water vapor imagery.

Water vapor loop on PTC1.

Looking closely at the loop above, it appears the activity is waning somewhat, not a sign of intensification. Rainfall through the weekend is still five plus inches for many areas.

Rainfall forecast through the weekend, most of this will fall between now and Saturday night.

Latest tropical models remain very consistency with taking the center over Lake Okeechobee. With this system, it is not about the system but the area of rain to the east of it.

Lastly for now, here are 10pm observations from across south Florida and the Keys. Most sites are reporting rain to heavy rain, but the winds are not significant at this time.

10pm observations across south Florida.

I will have periodic updates on Twitter. Please share any pictures or observations you have as we go through the night and Saturday.


6/1/22 Hurricane Season Starts with Watching the Gulf

Currently a band of showers and thunderstorms have setup over north Broward. This is a sample of what is to come in the Friday afternoon to Sunday morning time frame.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring some of the remnants of Hurricane Agetha that came ashore Mexico earlier this week. Currently the area in red has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical system. If it gets a name, it will be Alex.

June 1, 8pm Tropical Weather Outlook
Satellite image at 1025pm EDT.

The future of the system path is fairly certain to come towards Florida then into the Bahama. This will likely produce three to five inches of rain in most areas with locally heavier amounts.

The latest guidance suggest that the further south the system goes the faster the rain will move in and depart. A track closer to the Naples area will produce more rain. Air Force recon will investigate the area starting tomorrow, giving models more data and more reliable output. The 8pm models are below.

June 1, 8pm. Model runs.

Tomorrow should give us more clarity on what to expect this Friday and into the weekend. Please stop by then.

5/30/22 Memorial Day – Showers and Thunderstorms Possible Today

Another day with showers and thunderstorms around but not all day. The main focus will be mid afternoon to early evening for today’s activity, but at this time not expecting the rainfall amounts we saw on Sunday. Here is the 24 hour rainfall forecast for the state. The Pompano area can expect one half to one inch of rain,.

Partly to cloudy skies today with a high of 86° for this Memorial Day where we honor those who have given their lives for the freedom we have today.

Latest satellite image showing plenty of activity around the southern part of Florida and the Bahamas.

Finally for this morning, the National Hurricane Season has bumped up the chances for development to medium for the area around the Yucatán peninsula. An area for us to keep an eye on, there is no immediate threat.

Tropical Weather Outlook for May 30, 2022, 8am.

5/29/22 Strong Storms and Heavy Rain Setting In

Over the past couple of hours thunderstorm activity has blossomed over southeast Florida. Between the satellite and radar loops the focus has been on the eastern half of the counties.

Three hour satellite loop.
Radar loop.

Pompano Beach Airport has recorded a 44mph wind gust last hour and over 1.5 inches of rain. There have also been a couple of small hail reports.

Follow on Twitter for other updates this afternoon and evening.

5/22/22 – New Week Outlook and First Tropical Disturbance of the 2022 Season

After a very wet and storm end of last week, then a dry, very warm weekend we will see some moderation in the temperature as we go into this new week. Rain chances do not increase until mid week and then do return for the Memorial Day weekend with a trough of low pressure that will be in our area. We will look closer at the weekend later in the week. Here are the forecasted highs and lows for the next seven days.

NWS forecasted highs and lows.

We also have our first tropical disturbance identified this evening. This will not affect south Florida but just a reminder the season is upon us. This is the time to begin our preparedness.

8pm Tropical Weather Outlook. Area will move inland tomorrow, not likely to develop into anything before given the proximity to land.

4/1/22 – No Joke, Severe Weather Threat for the Weekend

Good morning, a few notes for the weather today and this weekend. Today we will see the start of a wet pattern across the area as a cold front to our north slowly creeps down the state and then stall over the weekend around the Lake area. We will warm and humid today with highs in the upper 80s and dew points in the 70s. A combination of these items will allow showers and some thunder storms to develop later today and then become more numerous over the weekend,

Forecast map for this afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday we could see a severe weather threat across Broward and Palm Beach counties with the Storm Prediction Center placing us under a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather. For today the risk exists mainly to our north and to the west.

SPC severe weather threat map.

I will have an update later today to be more specific with the overall rain threat and severe weather possibilities.

3/12/22 – Weekend Weather: High Today Near 90°, Gusty Winds, Some Rain, Time Change, and Colder Weather

A lot going on today with the weather as a cold front will sweep through the area. Ahead and after the front winds will pick up and remain gusty. There is a Wind Advisory in effect from 10am this morning though this evening.

Wind Advisory for Saturday.
Cold front can be seen over north Florida.

The first part of the day is going to be nice but very warm as the winds pick up. This will be followed by about 2pm with rain approaching then moving into the area. Rain will not be overall heavy and will linger into the evening. Then the colder weather will filter in.

Using the latest HRRR to outline the highlights of our weather today.
Rain will be approaching SE Florida about 2pm using simulated radar from the HRRR.

We can see the roller coaster of our temps for the next 36 hours.

NWS 36 hour temperature forecast.

Follow me on Twitter where I will post updates today at pompanoweather.

3/10/22 – Weekend Outlook: Hot Saturday with a Strong Cold Front Along with Time Change

A variety of weather between now and the end of the weekend and we have time change on Sunday morning. Between now and the Saturday afternoon our temps will continue to climb a little each day with highs on Saturday around 90°.

NWS forecasted highs and lows.

Then we have a cold front that will sweep through the area Saturday afternoon brining rain, possible thunderstorms, much cooler air and lower dew points for Sunday and the start of the new week. Rainfall amounts are not extend to be high, but if we do get a thunderstorm with the passage amounts could be higher than shown here.

78 hour rainfall amounts, Thursday through Sunday morning.

By Saturday early evening the rain will stop, winds will pick up a bit and the cool air will filter in that will give us a wonderful Sunday weather wise. This is a comparison of the GFS and Euro for the timing of the frontal passage.

An update will be out tomorrow.

3/4/22 – Weekend Outlook: Beautiful and Breezy

We have a beautiful weather weekend ahead with warm temps and breezy conditions. The only downside will be dangerous rip currents at the beaches.

High pressure will be in control of our weather which will lead to mostly dry and mostly sunny weather. We have a very slight chance of an isolated, light shower through Sunday.

Friday morning satellite image showing very little in the way of activity near Florida.
Surface map for Saturday morning.

Our temperatures will not be extreme for this time of the year, highs around 80° and lows around 70°. Though we will warm up next week.

NWS seven day forecast.

The most noticeable weather this weekend will be the wind. Wind will increase gradually today and then pick up more tonight and park on Sunday when we may have gusts up to 25mph. The HRRR model shows this clearly as we see gust up to 20mph tarting around sunset tonight.

Early Friday HRRR 48 hour output.

Plan to get out this weekend and enjoy this time of year in Florida. Plenty of activities going on including the Renaissance Festival in Deerfield. Just stay out of the water at the beaches.

1/30/22 – One More Cold Night, Warming Up This Week

After a very cold weekend we are in for a gradual warmup this week. With lows in the upper 30s to around 40° this morning we will be about 5° warmer Monday morning. From there our gradual warming begins with a high of 70° Monday afternoon.

NWS forecast for this week.

Minimal rain, if any at all this week. No expecting any rain through Tuesday. Starting on Wednesday there could be a couple showers in the area. That risk remains for the rest of the week.

Looking back on today, here are the highs and lows from today (Location/High/Low/Precipitation):

FLL : Fort Lauderdale Intl : 63 / 40 / 0.00
FXE : Fort Lauderdale Exec : 62 / 40 / 0.00
HST : Homestead AFB : 60 / 40 / 0.00
MIA : Miami : 63 / 42 / 0.00
APF : Naples : 61 / 37 / 0.00
OPF : Opa-locka : 62 / 41 / 0.00
HWO : Pembroke Pines : 62 / 39 / 0.00
PMP : Pompano Beach : 62 / 40 / 0.00
TMB : West Kendall-Tamiami : 63 / 39 / 0.00
PBI : West Palm Beach : 61 / 37 / 0.00

Have a great week!